Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: August 2025
Vietnam’s economic growth trajectory remained solid in August – and we continue to expect 7% GDP growth this year. Vietnam’s high-frequency economic indicators were nearly unchanged in August; export growth to the US continues to slow while infrastructure investment in Vietnam continues to surge – by nearly 50% YoY in 8M25. In contrast, the outlook […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: July 2025
We continue to expect Vietnam’s GDP to grow by 7% in 2025. Two factors currently driving the country’s economic growth are: a 28% surge in exports to the US and a 23% jump in tourist arrivals in 7M25. Meanwhile, two topics currently capturing the attention of investorsin Vietnam are: the risk that Trump’s tariffs could […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: June 2025
Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated from 7.1% YoY in 1Q25 to 7.5% in 1H25, driven by a 28% YoY surge in exports to the US in Q2 – up from 22% YoY growth in Q1. Exports from Vietnam (and Asia) to the US jumped as companies “front loaded” purchases of “Made in Vietnam” products during Trump’s […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: May 2025
The three outstanding features of Vietnam’s economy in May (and 5M25) are: 1) a dramatic acceleration / surge in infrastructure spending as the year has progressed; 2) a surge in exports to the US during Trump’s 90-day “pause” period on reciprocal tariffs; and 3) a near 50% year-on-year (YoY) surge in Chinese tourist arrivals in […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: April 2025
President Donald Trump’s April 2nd announcement of unexpectedly severe 46% “reciprocal tariffs” on Vietnamese exports to the US, followed by a 90-day “pause” initiated a week later, triggered a significant surge in exports from Vietnam. This export rush, which we anticipated in our recent webinar, markedly influenced Vietnam’s economy during April. Prior to these announcements, […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: March 2025
Vietnam’s GDP growth dipped to 6.9% for the first quarter of 2025 after ending 2024 with 7.1% growth. The first quarter’s growth was affected by the slowdown in export growth we have been forecasting, although that was partly offset by a pick-up in consumption (which we also expected) and by an unforeseen increase in tourist […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: February 2025
February’s macroeconomic statistics support our forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP will grow at a comparable pace in 2025 as it did in 2024, although the drivers will be different. This year, a pickup in consumption and public spending will be two of the key drivers, which should offset to some extent slowing export growth to the […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: January 2025
Vietnam’s economic statistics for January and February are always impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. This year, the holiday was in January (versus February in 2024), resulting in four fewer working days during the month. In January, industrial production growth in Vietnam was nearly flat year-on-year. There was also slowing export […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: December 2024
Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth came in at 7.1%, a solid recovery from the 5.1% recorded for 2023. The expansion in 2024 was driven entirely by a surge in manufacturing output growth (from 3.6% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2024), which inturn was propelled by a recovery in Vietnam’s export to the US from an 11% […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: November 2024
We have been advising investors for months that Vietnam’s economy has been supported by an extraordinary surge in exports to the US this year, which boosted the country’s manufacturing sector. However, the growth of consumption by Vietnamese consumers has been fairly modest, which is reflected in modest revenue and earnings growth of consumer-facing companies in […]